The systems that I know are mostly based on classical statistical approach. This is how it was 10 years ago, and I believe that situation is no better now.Īt that moment I have recognized that there are only two possible ways for me:ġ) Join some institutional trading system. The whole thing was a racing with constantly increasing speed. And they had a team of lawyers ready to fight with brokerages for improper handling of a trade (from their point of view). Once in several months, they had to re-adjust their robots. Some guys preferred a special processor instead of PCs, to avoid the usage of the operating system. To minimize latency, they tried to locate their robots as closer to the exchange as possible. One of the challenges was finding institutional data feeds, with lowest latency and fastest execution time. In 2009-2010, I was involved into some activity with the group of traders who tried to develop an HFT system for their fund (actually, they used Timing Solution for that, one of the earlier versions). You may be a good biker and have a very good bicycle, - and still, your chances to win against specialized racing cars are pretty slim ones. It is similar to the situation when you participate in car race competition driving a bicycle.
The competitors that are armed, prepared and informed much better than you, regardless the quality of the software you have, regardless of the fact how really smart you may be. Stepping on this road, you are playing against some very dangerous competitors: institutional trading systems. In other words, with intraday trading you are entering the totally different territory of HFT (high frequency trading). Working with a reliable data/transactions provider. (That is why I call it "bathroom slippage".) The trading system should be fast, automated and Just going to the bathroom at the wrong moment can dramatically affect your account. (Now, in 2021, I know that the risk was underestimated 3 times at least, the real slippage for this system is 3-5 seconds.) It means that if you would decide to trade this system, you should be aware that any 10-15 sec delay in the transaction (or 3-5 seconds) leads to your potential loss. I have calculated the model in 2010, the slippage was 10-15 seconds. The most terrible nuance there was slippage. It looked like we have found the Holy Grail, it was almost there, - until we explored it more.
The model was based on 1 min chart the maximum period in trade was 1-2 hours (as I remember). It worked quite well in crazy months of 2007 - 2008 years. 77% per year (no reinvesting, to get conservative % without exponential growth). The model provided 6.4% profit per month, i.e. These are results of the testing for one of them: More than 10 years ago, we have conducted backtesting for these models. I can tell you more: actually, we do have some working intraday models. There is more to consider when we talk about intraday forecast models.įirstly, when I say that we DO NOT HAVE such models, - it means that we do not have models that I can recommend to Timing Solution users as STATISTICALLY VERIFIED models. However, the matter with intraday models is not that straightforward.
?"), you usually get the answer: "Yes, we do." I bet the only question that will be politely avoided is that one, very important, question: "Do you have statistically verified models for intraday?" If you ask vendors of such packages about anything related to intraday (questions like "can you do this or that. If you need these models and plan to work with real time streaming, it would be better to use some other software packages that allow streaming real quotes from different sources as well as building an enormous amount of indicators and charting tools. If you do not believe me, please read Larry Williams's quote above.
The reason why we do not provide intraday models is explained here: The brief and straightforward answer to them would be: NO, we do not provide formal intraday models. I receive them often, and these are the questions that I do not like to answer. Questions regarding intraday models are the most asked ones. Spending half the time you do using it for day trading.ĭay trading is the hardest of a very hard game Intraday Models Intraday models: Instincts versus KnowledgeĪs I see it you guys would make twice the money swing trading, using Timing Solutions,